Teardowns

What would Venture Vetter have said?

We wrote up the launch plans of well-known startups as their founders described them before launch, and ran them through the same pipeline your idea goes through. Then we put each verdict next to what actually happened.

The submitted texts describe only what was planned at launch. The model may still know how these stories ended, so read the reports as a demonstration of the method, not as proof of foresight.

The plan as of 2014HomejoyOn-demand home cleaning, booked in 60 secondsValidate first46.3What actually happened: Homejoy shut down in July 2015 after raising about $40 million, citing lawsuits over whether its cleaners should be classed as employees. Reporting at the time also pointed to weak customer retention after discounted first cleans.Read the report
The plan as of 2016JuiceroA Wi-Fi juice press with a produce-pack subscriptionValidate first60.0What actually happened: In April 2017 Bloomberg showed that Juicero's packs could be squeezed by hand about as well as by the press. The company shut down in September 2017 after raising about $120 million.Read the report
The plan as of 2020QuibiPremium short-form video, made only for phonesValidate first45.0What actually happened: Quibi launched in April 2020 and announced its shutdown in October 2020, about six months later, after raising about $1.75 billion. The app closed on 1 December 2020 and its content library was later sold to Roku.Read the report

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